N.F.L. Week 8 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

Visits: 6

Even with some defensive issues for both teams, the Rams and Chiefs have continued to look like Super Bowl contenders. This week, Los Angeles has a chance to start 8-0 for the first time since 1969, and Kansas City is favored heavily to get to 7-1. The distance between them and their competition seems fairly wide, but Minnesota and New Orleans will be battling this week to see which team is the second-best in the N.F.C., while New England has seemingly righted the ship and is back to contention in the A.F.C.

Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 8, with all picks made against the point spread.

Last week’s record: 8-5-1

Overall record: 57-46-3


Packers at Rams, 4:25 p.m., Fox

A knee brace is not typically the subject of thrilling conversation, but whether or not Aaron Rodgers wears one on Sunday could go a long way toward determining how this game goes.

Rodgers, who injured his knee in Week 1, has been steadily feeling better. He talked this week about potentially going without the contraption on his left leg against the Rams (7-0). Rodgers has said repeatedly that he is not comfortable in the brace, which is a scary thought, since he has 12 touchdown passes and just one interception for the Packers (3-2-1) this season.

Brace or not, Green Bay has a tough game on the road against the undefeated Rams. Los Angeles has not looked as dominant since its defense lost some depth to injuries. But Todd Gurley is the best running back in football, and Jared Goff has plenty of receiving options at his disposal, even with Cooper Kupp expected to miss the game as a result of a knee injury.

In truth, the Rams should be expected to win no matter what, becoming the first team to reach 8-0 since 2015, when three teams did it. But if Rodgers is without the brace, a point-spread of nearly 10 points is ridiculous. Pick: Packers +9.5

Broncos at Chiefs, 1 p.m., CBS

The Chiefs (6-1) have been compared to the N.B.A.’s Golden State Warriors this season. They are fielding a video game-like offense in which Patrick Mahomes can seemingly score at will with any number of receiving options on every play. With last week’s blowout win over Cincinnati, they experienced another Warriors staple: the victory so dominant that it’s almost boring.

Oddsmakers are predicting another blowout this week, and it is easy to see why. Mahomes has already thrown 22 touchdown passes this season (four short of Alex Smith’s total in 16 games last year), but even in Kansas City, the Broncos (3-4) are capable of forcing a type of slow-paced game on both sides of the ball. Even if the Chiefs win as expected, the margin of victory might be far closer than 10 points. Pick: Broncos +10

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The Vikings have had a lot to celebrate this season, thanks to the sensational play of Adam Thielen, who survived this celebration with Brian O’Neill in last week’s win over the Jets.CreditAl Bello/Getty Images

Saints at Vikings, 8:20 p.m., NBC

There are few teams hotter than the Saints (5-1) and Vikings (4-2-1). New Orleans has won five straight, getting stellar play from the ageless Drew Brees, and Minnesota has won three straight, looking like they made a wise move in ditching all their in-house options at quarterback and signing Kirk Cousins.

The Saints have generated quite a few more points than the Vikings, averaging 34 a game compared to 25.3 for Minnesota. But the teams are not separated by much in terms of total yardage, and the Vikings have been more effective on defense (even if they’re playing below their typical standards).

The matchup could come down to which team gets more from its superstar wide receiver. Michael Thomas has been great for the Saints, averaging 98 receiving yards a game. But Adam Thielen has been the best receiver in the N.F.L., surpassing 100 yards in each of his team’s seven games. Another 100-yard effort, and a big game from Stefon Diggs, should get Minnesota a win at home. Pick: Vikings -1

Ravens at Panthers, 1 p.m., CBS

The Ravens (4-3) and Panthers (4-2) are probably both still trying to process last week’s results. Baltimore nearly completed an improbable comeback against New Orleans, only to lose when Justin Tucker, a kicker who had never missed an extra point, went wide right. Carolina, a team that had struggled on the road, completed the largest fourth quarter comeback in franchise history, stunning the Eagles.

Baltimore is the favorite in this game, thanks to the team’s top-ranked defense and more-than-enough offense, but even Terrell Suggs admitted the prospect of trying to stop Cam Newton is daunting. “Superman! I mean, how often do you get to play against a superhero?” Suggs asked. Pick: Panthers +2



Dolphins at Texans, 8:20 p.m. (Thursday), Fox and NFL Network

The Texans (4-3) are on a roll, and they are learning to win even when quarterback Deshaun Watson does not set the league on fire. He had a three-game stretch earlier this year in which he passed for a whopping 1,135 yards, but Houston has continued its current four-game winning streak despite Watson passing for only 177 and 139 yards the last two weeks. It has helped that the Texans’ defense allowed a combined 20 points in those games. Brock Osweiler, who used to play quarterback poorly for the Texans, will be under center for Miami. With his best receivers, Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson, out this week, Osweiler’s recent productivity might take a huge downturn. Pick: Texans by 7.5


Blake Bortles will be back under center for Jacksonville despite committing eight turnovers over his last three games.CreditPhelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Eagles at Jaguars, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network

Blake Bortles stayed out of the way enough last season that Jacksonville’s defense carried the team to the A.F.C. championship game — an unexpected development that led NBC’s “The Good Place” to explain the turnaround as a product of inadvertent celestial interference. But he has been brutal over the last three games, and it earned him a seat on the bench for part of last week’s loss to Houston. Now the Jaguars (3-4) have a game in their vacation home, Wembley Stadium, and while they certainly have more experience with international travel than the Eagles (3-4), the return of Bortles could spell their doom. Pick: Eagles -3

Browns at Steelers, 1 p.m., CBS

There is no doubt that the Browns (2-4-1) are a more relevant team with Baker Mayfield playing quarterback. They have lost three of their last four games, but two were overtime losses decided by a field goal. Something to monitor, though, is how Mayfield’s teammates are responding to him. At first, his enthusiasm seemed to be energizing them. But last week he took a vicious hit to the head, and when he got up to defend himself, no teammates entered the fray. If he wants to keep Cleveland close on the road against a rapidly improving team like the Steelers (3-2-1), he will need the whole team fighting with him. Pick: Browns +8.5

Jets at Bears, 1 p.m., CBS

The massive amount of momentum the Bears (3-3) had two weeks ago coming out of their bye week faded thanks to consecutive losses, but it got stoked at least a little bit last week when Mitchell Trubisky’s Hail Mary attempt got Chicago within a yard of tying up the Patriots. Even with that encouragement, it has been like watching a different team ever since Khalil Mack sustained an ankle injury two games ago. He did not practice Wednesday, and if he is still in a diminished state, then the Jets (3-4) could make this game a lot closer than advertised. Pick: Jets +7.5

Buccaneers at Bengals, 1 p.m., Fox

This game feels like an all-offense/no-defense slugfest, but the Bengals (4-3) offense will have to show up after it inexplicably took last week off against the porous Kansas City defense. Losing Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard to injuries is obviously a huge blow, but Cincinnati simply has to generate more points to make up for the team’s defense. The Buccaneers (3-3) are just as bad on defense, but a special group of receivers that includes DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans and O.J. Howard, a tight end averaging 17.6 yards a catch, might be enough to get Tampa Bay a win on the road. Pick: Buccaneers +4.5

In Detroit’s three recent wins, Kerryon Johnson, left, and LeGarrette Blount have combined for 449 rushing yards and three touchdowns.CreditMark Brown/Getty Images

Seahawks at Lions, 1 p.m. Fox

The Seahawks (3-3) have won three of their last four games, but with two of the wins coming against Oakland and Arizona, it is hard to get too enthusiastic about them. Even with the improvement, their path to a wild card looks awfully steep (there is no point in pretending they have a chance of catching the Rams for the division title). They have a brutal stretch over the next five weeks. Going on the road to Detroit is more complicated than it has been in recent years, thanks to the Lions (3-3) finding some balance in their offense, with Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount giving them a decent running game. This game should be an excellent barometer for whether Seattle’s rebuilt defense has gotten better, or if they have just gone against easy competition. Pick: Lions -3

Redskins at Giants, 1 p.m., Fox

Give the Giants (1-6) some credit: They made a game of it on Monday night against Atlanta. Coach Pat Shurmur took some grief for a few calls that were deemed unconventional and didn’t go the team’s way, but they were the same type of mathematical decisions that have had everyone praising Philadelphia’s Doug Pederson and Carolina’s Ron Rivera in recent years. Hosting the Redskins (4-2) is a tough matchup, though, as Washington not only has more talent, but they have something to play for with the N.F.C. East looking like it is theirs for the taking. Pick: Redskins -1

Colts at Raiders, 4:05 p.m., CBS

The Raiders (1-5) are definitely not tanking. Coach Jon Gruden has made that clear throughout his short second tenure with the team. They intend to win as many games as possible in their last year(s) in Oakland. Trading away Khalil Mack, their best defensive player, before the season was not tanking, and trading Amari Cooper, their most talented wide receiver, earlier this week was also not tanking. Surely the draft picks they picked up will help them beat the Colts (2-5) this week. Pick: Colts -3

49ers at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m., Fox

It is hard to imagine a game being more irrelevant this early in the season. The 49ers (1-6) had their season essentially end when Jimmy Garoppolo was injured way back in Week 3, and the Cardinals (1-6) had no expectations to begin with. The Upshot’s Playoff Simulator gives San Francisco a better chance at making the playoffs: That team is at 1 percent, while Arizona is labeled <1 percent. This game should end in a tie, as neither team deserves a win, but Arizona will probably win based on little more than home-field advantage. Pick: Cardinals +1


Patriots at Bills, 8:15 p.m., ESPN

Monday Night Football used to be the N.F.L.’s marquee game every week. Even with that distinction officially switching to NBC’s Sunday night game, it is hard to see how anyone thought a midseason matchup between the Patriots (5-2) and Bills (2-5) was worth of prime-time television.

Buffalo will once again turn to Derek Anderson as its quarterback, and while they would undoubtedly lose at home regardless of which of their passer options started, Las Vegas went very aggressive with Buffalo being named 14-point underdogs.

In terms of the actual football, this looks like an easy second road win for New England. The Bills defense is overmatched in scheme and talent, and their offense, with the turnover-prone Anderson under center, might contribute to the score in the wrong direction as well.

But if you’re looking simply at the point spread, expecting the Patriots to care enough to win by 14 seems like too big of an ask. Pick: Bills +14

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