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While Wall Street focuses on U.S.-China trade war dangers, Medley Global Advisors’ Ben Emons sees two risks making a comeback.
The way the world’s affairs are shaping up, he warns Brexit fallout and the threat of U.S. tariffs on European cars could sneak up on investors in year’s second half — which kicks off Monday.
According to Emons, there’s an increasing chance a no-deal Brexit could damage global markets.
“That’s still ongoing with the changes in leadership in the UK,” the firm’s global macro strategy managing director told CNBC’s “Futures Now ” last Thursday.
Emons’ other glaring risk is possible car tariffs. In May, the Trump administration delayed a final decision by up to six months on whether to place tariffs on automobile and auto parts.
“You have the administration negotiating with Europe, and that’s the next thing we’ll have to look at after this G-20,” he said. “It’s a big market for European cars. That could really impact Europe in particular, and I would like to mention the U.S. likely, too.”
With Treasury yields at record lows in Europe, Emons believes another batch of tariffs would add to volatility and act as a catalyst for more central bank easing measures.
Meanwhile, the trade war between Washington and Beijing is already pushing rate cuts around the globe. He expects the Federal Reserve to join them by trimming interest rates in July to address softening consumer spending and the growth slowdowns tied to trade.
“Our base case is more for a 25 basis point cut,” Emons said.