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Is gold losing its shine?
A stronger-than-expected June jobs report put the precious metal on pace Friday for its first weekly loss in nearly two months as investors reevaluated the Federal Reserve’s policy plans for interest rates. Gold prices, which have climbed more than 9% this year, shed about 2% in Friday trading.
Expectations for a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in July — which once rose as high as 29% — fell to the single digits, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cut rose to 91% from just above 70%.
And this doesn’t make gold’s setup as dismal as it may seem, said one veteran futures trader.
While investors’ outlook on the Fed “changed pretty dramatically,” they are still anticipating a 25-basis-point cut, the result of which would be bullish for the gold market, Jim Iuorio, managing director at TJM Institutional Services, told CNBC’s “Futures Now” on Friday.
“So, instead of thinking the Fed’s going to be real irresponsible and ease when they shouldn’t, they just think they’re only going to be a little bit [irresponsible],” the longtime futures and options trader said. “As far as gold’s concerned, $1,380’s the level, in my opinion. [If] it stays above it, it’s still positive.”
Anthony Grisanti, founder and president of GRZ Energy, said that while gold could see more downside pressure if domestic economic data continues to turn positive, this downturn won’t last.
“I think it’s an opportunity to buy,” Grisanti, who has decades of experience in the futures industry, said in the same “Futures Now” interview.
And while the $1,387 and $1,384 levels can provide the yellow metal with intermittent support on the way down, “the real support is $1,373, which is [the] 21-day moving average,” Grisanti said. “And the uncertainty over geo[politics] and trade and the Fed makes me want to buy it when it reaches that level.”