Rookie Survey: Zion, Morant tipped to shine

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Zion Williamson and Ja Morant, the top two picks in the 2019 Draft, have received praise and approval from their peers in the annual NBA Rookie Survey, writes NBA.com’s John Schuhmann.

Last season was the first time in since the 1984-85 season that the top five picks of the previous Draft went on to be the five players who comprised the All-Rookie First Team. One year later, the teams that had those top five picks should feel pretty good about their decisions.

Time will tell about the five teams that had the first five picks in this year’s Draft. But it’s clear that fellow rookies approve of the players selected in the top two.

In this year’s NBA Rookie Survey, 62 per cent of responders picked the New Orleans Pelicans’ Zion Williamson or the Memphis Grizzlies’ Ja Morant to win the 2019-20 Rookie of the Year award.

Zion Williamson #1 of the Duke Blue Devils dunks the ball against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the second half in the East Regional game of the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Capital One Arena on March 29, 2019 in Washington, DC. 1:55
Watch a sizzling selection of Zion Williamson’s most thunderous dunks from his college season with Duke

Williamson made Rookie Survey history with how many votes he received on the ‘Most Athletic’ question, while Morant was a clear favourite for ‘Best Playmaker’.

Williamson and Morant received the most total votes in the survey, but it was No 7 pick Coby White (Chicago Bulls) and No 33 pick Carsen Edwards (Boston Celtics) who both received votes on a survey-high five questions. In total, 38 different rookies received votes on at least one of the seven questions about their draft class.

NBA.com sat down with the rookie class at the annual Rookie Photo Shoot where they answered the survey questions.

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Players were asked not to vote for themselves, college team-mates or NBA team-mates. Some still did, and those votes were discounted.

Who will be the 2019-20 Rookie of the Year?

  • Zion Willamson (New Orleans Pelicans) – 35 per cent
  • Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies) – 27 per cent
  • RJ Barrett (New York Knicks) and Cam Reddish (Atlanta Hawks) – 5 per cent
Zion Williamson flexes after scoring in his Summer League debut
Image: Williamson flexes after scoring in his Summer League debut

Williamson feels like a strong pick, but in the previous 10 years of the Rookie Survey, the top vote-getter has gone on to win the Rookie of the Year award just once. That was in 2007 when Kevin Durant received 54 per cent of the vote.

Williamson is the first player in the last five years to receive at least one third of the vote, and he might have had more if some of his fellow rookies (those that voted for the six guys selected outside the Lottery) had studied their history. Of the 67 Rookie of the Year winners (that weren’t territorial picks in the 1950s and early 1960s), 61 (or 91 per cent) were selected in the top 10 of the Draft, and 52 (or 78 per cent) were selected in the top five.

Which rookie will have the best career?

  • Cam Reddish (Atlanta Hawks) – 19 per cent
  • Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies) – 16 per cent
  • De’Andre Hunter (Atlanta Hawks) – 11 per cent
Cam Reddish #2 of the Duke Blue Devils celebrates a three point basket against the UCF Knights during the first half in the second round game of the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Colonial Life Arena on March 24, 2019 in Columbia, South Carolina. 0:43
Learn more about Atlanta Hawks rookie Cam Reddish

This is the sixth straight year that a Duke player has earned (or tied for) the most votes on this question, with Reddish joining Jabari Parker (2014), Jahlil Okafor (2015), Brandon Ingram (2016), Jayson Tatum (2017) and Wendell Carter Jr (2018).

The seven players who received multiple votes were all selected in the top 10, though there were another eight votes for players selected outside the Lottery.

Which rookie was the biggest steal at where he was selected in the Draft?

  • Bol Bol (44) (Denver Nuggets) – 19 per cent
  • Kevin Porter Jr (30) (Cleveland Cavaliers) – 19 per cent
  • Carsen Edwards (33) (Boston Celtics) – 5 per cent
  • Nassir Little (25) (Portland Trail Blazers) – 5 per cent
  • Isaiah Roby (45) (Dallas Mavericks) – 5 per cent
  • Coby White (7) (Chicago Bulls) – 5 per cent
  • Grant Williams (22) (Boston Celtics) – 5 per cent
Bol Bol #1 of the Oregon Ducks celebrates his three point shot in the second half against the Syracuse Orange during the 2K Empire Classic at Madison Square Garden on November 16, 2018 in New York City.The Oregon Ducks defeated the Syracuse Orange 80-65
Image: Denver Nuggets rookie Bol Bol in college action for the Oregon Ducks

As it often does, this question got the biggest range of answers, including each of the last six picks of the first round. But Bol and Porter, two of the six players from the Pac-12 Conference, clearly stood out among the group.

Draymond Green is the only one of the previous 16 players to earn (or tie for) the most votes on this question (which was worded “Which rookie is being most overlooked?” through 2014) that has ever been an All-Star, though Donovan Mitchell is certainly a potential All-Star in the years to come.

Which rookie is the most athletic?

  • Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans) – 87 per cent
  • Brandon Clarke (Memphis Grizzlies) – 8 per cent
Zion Williamson during his Pelicans debut at Summer League in Las Vegas 2:16
Zion Williamson’s Summer League debut for the New Orleans Pelicans against the New York Knicks was cut short as an earthquake shook the arena in Las Vegas

The 87 per cent that Williamson earned here is the greatest percentage of the vote that any player has earned on any question in the history of the Rookie Survey, surpassing the 79 per cent that Stephen Curry got for ‘Best Shooter’ in 2009. That’s good company!

Which rookie is the best shooter?

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat) – 33 per cent
  • Kyle Guy (Sacramento Kings) – 29 per cent
  • Cameron Johnson (Phoenix Suns) – 13 per cent
Tyler Herro attacks off the dribble during Summer League 1:05
Miami Heat rookie Tyler Herro poured in 25 points against the Orlando Magic in Summer League

Guy made twice as many three-pointers (120 at a 43 per cent clip) for Virginia last season than Herro did in his one season for Kentucky (60 at 36 per cent). Johnson (47 per cent) shot better than both of them.

The Suns could benefit from having two of the top four players in this category (their pick Ty Jerome received eight per cent of vote to take fourth place). Phoenix ranked 29th or 30th in effective field goal percentage from outside the paint in each of the last three seasons.

Which rookie is the best defender?

  • Matisse Thybulle (Philadelphia 76ers) – 37 per cent
  • De’Andre Hunter (Atlanta Hawks) – 29 per cent
  • Brandon Clarke (Memphis Grizzlies) – 8 per cent
  • Jaxson Hayes (New Orleans Pelicans) – 8 per cent
  • Nassir Little (Portland Trail Blazers) – 8 per cent
Matisse Thybulle in action for the Philadelphia 76ers at Summer League in Las Vegas
Image: Matisse Thybulle in action for the Philadelphia 76ers at Summer League in Las Vegas

This is the only question for which Thybulle received any votes, but he received the greatest percentage of the vote on this question since Victor Oladipo (63 per cent in 2013).

While Thybulle is joining a team with a handful of guys that have already proven to be impact defenders, Hunter’s defense is more critical to the success of the Hawks, who ranked 28th on that end of the floor last season.

Which rookie is the best playmaker?

  • Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies) – 40 per cent
  • Darius Garland (Cleveland Cavaliers) – 15 per cent
  • Ty Jerome (Phoenix Suns) – 10 per cent
  • Coby White (Chicago Bulls) – 10 per cent
Ja Morant celebrates a Grizzlies basket at Summer League
Image: Morant celebrates a Grizzlies basket at Summer League

Morant led the nation in assists by a pretty wide margin. In Memphis, the latest winner on this question is replacing the first; Mike Conley received 45 per cent of the vote for best playmaker in the initial Rookie Survey in 2007. The Grizzlies would surely love to see Morant stick around as long as Conley did.

Winning this category as a Laker – as Lonzo Ball and D’Angelo Russell both once did – apparently means that you’re going to be traded less than two years after doing so.

Aside from assessing each other’s talents, the 2019 rookies were also asked to name their favourite player in the league. The results were as follows:

LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers looks on during the first half of a game against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center on March 04, 2019 in Los Angeles, California.
Image: LeBron James sets himself to pass in a Lakers game
  • LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers) – 38 per cent
  • Kevin Durant (Brooklyn Nets) – 20 per cent
  • Kawhi Leonard (LA Clippers) – 8 per cent
  • Damian Lillard (Portland Trail Blazers) – 8 per cent

In the 10-year history of this question’s inclusion in the survey, only three players have been the top vote-getter. James, named the top guy for the fourth time, separates himself from Durant (three) and Kobe Bryant (three). Interestingly, Bryant wasn’t one of the two retired guys – Kevin Garnett and Steve Nash to get votes this time around.

John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com.

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